Stabilizing adaptation in an invasive species: alfalfa weevil as a case study

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dc.contributor.authorGutierrez, Andrew Paul
dc.contributor.authorPonti, Luigi
dc.contributor.authorLevi-Mourao, Alexandre
dc.contributor.authorPons, Xavier
dc.contributor.authorCure, Jose Ricardo
dc.contributor.authorNeteler, Markus
dc.contributor.authorSimmons, George
dc.date.accessioned2025-05-07T10:10:02Z
dc.date.available2025-05-07T10:10:02Z
dc.date.issued2025
dc.description.abstractStudies on the phylogeographic structure of species (strains) have yielded insights into their geographic distribution but tell less about strain's capacity to invade novel environments. Extensive age-specific life table data on two strains of the invasive Palearctic alfalfa weevil, Hypera postica (Gyllenhal) (i.e., Ebro Valley, Spain (S) and Hamadan, Iran (I) strains) having disparate vital rates, are used to develop weather-driven physiologically based demographic models (PBDMs) of their biology. The PBDMs are used to explore prospectively their invasive potential across much of the Holarctic. Using N.E. Gilbert's theory that fecundity is selected to the level appropriate for the population in its environment, we explore the interacting effects of multiples of observed fecundity, temperature-dependent mortality and density-dependent population growth constraints on stabilizing adaptation in strains S and I to weather in their native area. Aestivating adults (Aaes$$ {}<^>{aes}A $$) bridge the critical winter period, and their annual production is used as a metric of adaptation. Maximization of Aaes$$ {}<^>{aes}A $$ in the native environments supports Gilbert's supposition. The S and I strains have wide invasive potential, and we posit stabilizing selection for maximizing Aaes$$ {}<^>{aes}A $$ would occur after successful invasion of novel environments. We propose that the evolving adaptation of an invasive strain to extant and climate change weather can be examined by periodic updates of the biodemographic biology in the weather-driven PBDMs.
dc.description.sponsorshipMinistero dell'Universita e della Ricerca, Grant/Award Number: ARS01_00815; McKnight Foundation, Grant/Award Numbers: 22-341, 24-124; Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovacion y Universidades, Grant/Award Number: AGL2017-84127-R
dc.identifier.doihttps://doi.org/10.1111/afe.12686
dc.identifier.issn1461-9563
dc.identifier.urihttps://repositori.udl.cat/handle/10459.1/467933
dc.language.isoeng
dc.publisherWILEY
dc.relationinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/AEI/Plan Estatal de Investigación Científica y Técnica y de Innovación 2013-2016/AGL2017-84127-R/ES/MANEJO DE CULTIVOS EXTENSIVOS E INTERACCIONES CON EL PAISAJE PARA EL CONTROL DE PLAGAS/
dc.relation.isformatofReproducció del document publicat a https://doi.org/10.1111/afe.12686
dc.relation.ispartofAgricultural and Forest Entomology. In press
dc.rightscc-by (c) Gutierrez et al., 2025
dc.rightsAttribution 4.0 International*
dc.rights.accessRightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/*
dc.subjectGeographic distribution
dc.subjectInvasive species
dc.subjectPest risk analysis
dc.subjectPhysiologically based demographic models
dc.titleStabilizing adaptation in an invasive species: alfalfa weevil as a case study
dc.typeinfo:eu-repo/semantics/article
dc.type.versioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
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